I don't think it's that simple, unfortunately!
I think tubes are here to stay. I think it's programs and webmasters responsibility now to regulate what's acceptable and what is just plain theft.
One thing is for sure: giving away too much content does not send a surfer to a join page. So, giving away full scenes is just stupid, except for the tube owner that wants to build solid traffic.
My prediction: With so much "random hardcore porn" already available for free, regular porn sites sales will continue to drop. But very niched content will continue doing well by providing quality content to its fans. If you're a nylon lover, there's only a few vids on tubes for you to see, so if you want to have lots of good quality content featuring your fetish, then it's a matter of buying a membership or live without it.
My 2 cents
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